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Energy forecasting framework and emissions consensus tool (EFFECT)


The Energy forecasting framework and emissions consensus tool (EFFECT) is an open and transparent modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a range of development scenarios.

It focuses on sectors that contribute to and are expected to experience a rapid growth in emissions. The model was initially developed by the World Bank while working with the Government of India on an analysis of their national energy plan. EFFECT has since been used in eleven countries, including Brazil, Poland, Georgia, Macedonia, Nigeria, and Vietnam.

EFFECT forecasts GHG emissions for given development scenarios or policy choices. In addition to forecasting GHG Emissions, EFFECT enables consensus building among disparate government departments, and forecasts energy balances and amounts of energy generating / consuming assets in a country or sector. EFFECT also produces results for individual sectors such as road transport, agriculture, power, industry, household and non-residential sectors.

Key questions addressed:

  • What is my country’s GHG emissions forecast under different development scenarios?
  • How does each sector contribute to overall GHG emissions?

Sample data inputs:

  • Economic forecast (GDP)
  • Population data (population size, urbanization, household data by location)
  • Fuel prices
  • Income and price elasticities
  • CO2 emissions factors
  • Transportation data (passenger-km traveled, modal shifts, ownership)

Sample quantitative outputs:

  • GHG emissions
  • Investment, operating and maintenance costs
  • Amount of energy-generating/consuming assets
  • Cost of reducing GHG emissions

You can read more about EFFECT and download the tool here.

Resources:

E-learning courses for using the EFFECT tool can be found here.

 

Tool Summary

Cost:
  • Free
Expertise Required:
  • Moderate
Geographic Scope:
  • National
  • Sectoral
Activities/Scale:
  • Policy
Impacts Assessed:
  • Economic
    • Energy Security
    • Gross Domestic Product
  • Environmental
    • Air
    • Greenhouse Gases