Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE)
The Model of Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) combines technologies and fuels to construct so-called ‘energy chains’, making it possible to map energy flows from resource extraction, beneficiation and energy conversion (supply side) to the, distribution and the provision of energy services (demand side).
The model can help design long term energy supply strategies or test energy policy options by analyzing cost optimal energy mixes, investment needs and other costs for new infrastructure, energy supply security, energy resource utilization, rate of introduction of new technologies (technology learning), and environmental constraints.
Scenarios are developed by MESSAGE through minimizing the total systems costs under the constraints imposed on the energy system. Given this information and other scenario features such as the demand for energy services, the model configures the evolution of the energy system from the base year to the end of the time horizon. It provides the installed capacities of technologies, energy outputs and inputs, energy requirements at various stages of the energy system, costs, emissions, etc.
Key questions addressed:
- What are the consequences of pursuing possible energy supply strategies under various assumptions concerning: the availability of primary energy supply; future energy conversion technologies; different levels of energy demand and end-use patterns; environmental control; and conservation of energy?
Sample data inputs:
- Energy system structure
- Base year energy flows and prices
- Energy demand projections (MAED)
- Technology and resource options & their techno-economic performance profiles
- Technical and policy constraints
Sample quantitative outputs:
- Primary and final energy mix
- Emissions and waste streams
- Environmental impacts
- Resource use
- Land use
- Import dependence
- Investment requirements
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)